Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.030642 0.034876 0.039518 0.044989 0.051270 0.058264 0.066654
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.023500 0.029111 0.035832 0.044503 0.055430 0.068792 0.086449
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.020284 0.026602 0.034640 0.045666 0.060484 0.079825 0.107174
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.017468 0.023980 0.032671 0.045204 0.062948 0.087377 0.123906
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.015978 0.022827 0.032363 0.046730 0.068037 0.098796 0.147159
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.013905 0.020553 0.030151 0.045167 0.068343 0.103210 0.160484
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.012423 0.018942 0.028667 0.044416 0.069636 0.109049 0.176477
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.010952 0.017169 0.026723 0.042685 0.069112 0.111865 0.187773
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.010431 0.016811 0.026909 0.044315 0.074112 0.124028 0.216053
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.009957 0.016470 0.027069 0.045883 0.079128 0.136699 0.246717
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.009526 0.016149 0.027214 0.047411 0.084195 0.149950 0.280016
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.008830 0.015304 0.026380 0.047120 0.085946 0.157394 0.303267
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.008164 0.014467 0.025511 0.046723 0.087547 0.164903 0.327987
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007563 0.013692 0.024682 0.046320 0.089105 0.172529 0.354032
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007246 0.013406 0.024709 0.047529 0.093902 0.186997 0.396161
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006741 0.012716 0.023915 0.047046 0.095239 0.194595 0.424509
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006533 0.012576 0.024153 0.048639 0.101003 0.212014 0.476997
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.005977 0.011704 0.022883 0.047007 0.099758 0.214286 0.495036
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.005564 0.011085 0.022059 0.046224 0.100251 0.220385 0.522865
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.005086 0.010292 0.020815 0.044419 0.098279 0.220704 0.536663
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004984 0.010268 0.021160 0.046119 0.104434 0.240425 0.601665
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.004879 0.010228 0.021465 0.047755 0.110617 0.260928 0.671684
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.004773 0.010177 0.021741 0.049349 0.116873 0.282346 0.747312